Live-dealer online vs the casino floor
Same rules, same base rates, different results. The shoes are not the same, and we can show it.
The finding
Banker wins the same share of hands on a casino floor and at a live-dealer studio. What differs is the order the wins arrive in. Floor shoes in our dataset repeat the previous hand more often than chance allows, and the effect grows through the shoe; studio shoes sit exactly on chance. The odds are the same in both places; the sequence is not.
The test
| Statistic | Casino floor | Pragmatic online | Ezugi land-based stream | Evolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next hand repeats the last | 51.5% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 50.9% |
| Standard errors from chance | +5.9 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.8 |
Floor shoes repeat more than chance allows, and the effect grows through the shoe. Online shoes, from three providers, sit on chance. This is not a small-sample quirk: the online figures rest on 796,000 hands and are re-measured every night. Our proprietary meter was developed on this data for both kinds of shoe, and it is proven to be more effective on the casino floor.
Why we think that is
Studio shoes are prepared with procedures designed and audited to remove structure. Floor shoes are prepared by whatever that room does, and some rooms leave enough structure for streak-continuation rules to pay. We do not claim to know which rooms; we publish the measurement and let the nightly test watch every studio in our feed for a shuffle that starts leaving structure.
What it means for you
- On the floor, our proprietary meter reads the shoe as it develops and decides when a full unit goes down. It is the part of the system that was built for the floor, and it is where the system is proven more effective.
- Online, the same structure keeps your sizing and your stop fixed while you play your read of the table.
Questions
Are live-dealer baccarat tables random?
In our data, yes. Pragmatic Play, Evolution and Ezugi outcome streams pass every randomness test we run, including tests that would catch a flawed shuffle machine or a reused shoe.
Why would floor shoes be different?
Because shuffle procedures differ by room. We measure the result, not the procedure. The floor repeat rate after a deep shoe is 53.6% on 5,300 cases, more than five standard errors above chance.
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GET ACCESSFigures on this page are replays and measurements of logged hands under the current rule set as of 2026-09-23. They are not a forecast and do not guarantee future results. Decision support only; every bet is your own decision. 21+ or your local gambling age.