Bankroll management for baccarat
The size of your unit matters more than which side you bet. Here is how we size, and what the numbers look like when the edge is thin versus real.
Units, not dollars
Rack Chasers sizes every bet as a fraction of your buy-in and steps the unit up only as the bankroll grows. A $1,000 buy-in starts at a $50 full unit; a $10,000 buy-in at $500. Half units, where they are enabled, are half that. You never enter a dollar amount at the table.
What the edge allows
The correct unit depends on the hit rate you actually have, and most players overestimate theirs. Two bootstraps of 1,400-shoe sequences, 2,000 resamples each, make the point:
| Hit rate on Banker bets | Full-Kelly unit | 5% unit: median result | 5% unit: bust rate | 15% unit: bust rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 17% of bankroll | 13x | 0% | 0.6% |
| 53% | 3% of bankroll | 1.6x | 10% | 83% |
At 60%, doubling or tripling the unit is close to correct. At 53% the 5% unit is already above Kelly, and a 10% unit busts nearly half the time. This is why the app fixes the unit to the buy-in and refuses to let a hot streak change it.
The lock rule
Every purchase sets a target of 2.25 times the buy-in. Reach it and the app locks until you buy the next block. Chasing back a loss and chasing on a win are the two ways a real edge gets given back; the lock removes the second one.
Drawdowns to expect
Even a 55% edge loses a third of its bankroll now and then. In our replays the median worst drawdown at a 5% unit was about a third of the peak. If you cannot sit through that without changing the unit, the buy-in is too large. The break-even math behind these numbers.
Questions
What is the Kelly criterion for baccarat?
Kelly says bet the fraction of bankroll equal to your edge divided by the payout. At a 53% hit rate on Banker that is about 3% of bankroll; at 60% it is about 17%. Most players bet far more than Kelly on far less edge than they think they have.
How big should a baccarat bankroll be?
Large enough that your unit is 2% to 5% of it and a 40% drawdown does not change how you play. On a coin-flip edge nothing is large enough; the size of the bankroll cannot create an edge.
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A call on every hand, sized to your buy-in, with your record kept. Approved by hand, no emails, Telegram support.
GET ACCESSFigures on this page are replays and measurements of logged hands under the current rule set as of 2026-09-23. They are not a forecast and do not guarantee future results. Decision support only; every bet is your own decision. 21+ or your local gambling age.