Systems
Flat, progression, or proportional?
Three ways to size a baccarat bet, one of which is right if you have an edge and one of which is right if you do not.
Flat
Same bet every hand. Expected result is the hit rate times the payout minus the losses; variance is as low as it gets. If you have no edge, flat betting the minimum loses the least. If you have an edge, flat betting leaves money on the table because the unit never grows with the bankroll.
Progressions
Bets sized by the last result. They do not change expectation; they reshape the distribution. The Martingale piece has the numbers. The practical problem is human: progressions are the easiest system to abandon at the worst moment, after a run of losses, when the next bet is the biggest.
Proportional
Bet a fixed fraction of the current bankroll, stepped up as it grows. This is what Kelly-style sizing does and what Rack Chasers does. With an edge it compounds; without one it loses slower than any progression and never bets more than a fixed fraction, so a losing run shrinks the bets instead of growing them.
| Method | Expectation | Variance | Risk of ruin with an edge | Without an edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | house edge x turnover | lowest | low | slow loss |
| Negative progression | same | extreme tails | high | fast loss |
| Positive progression | same | high | moderate | moderate loss |
| Proportional | same per bet, compounds with an edge | moderate | lowest | slow loss |
Rack Chasers is built on a live dataset of about 838,000 logged baccarat hands, growing by roughly 130,000 a day, with every rule re-judged nightly against the new shoes. Nothing on this site is a forecast.
The full sizing article ยท Break-even by bet
Questions
What is the safest way to bet baccarat?
Flat betting a small fixed fraction of your bankroll. It cannot produce a catastrophic loss in one sequence, and it loses the least if you have no edge.
$299 for 50 shoes, paid in crypto
A call on every hand, sized to your buy-in, with a stop you cannot argue with. Paired with your own read of the table.
GET ACCESSFigures are measurements of logged hands and standard baccarat mathematics as of 2026-09-23. Not a forecast; no outcome is guaranteed. Decision support only; every bet is your own decision. 21+ or your local gambling age.