Math
Streaks and dragons, by the numbers
Every player has seen a dragon and every player has a theory about it. Here is what the frequencies actually are.
How often runs happen
With Banker at 50.7% of resolved hands, a run of exactly k same-side results in a row appears at a predictable rate. Per 1,000 non-tie hands:
| Run length | Expected per 1,000 hands | Seen in our live-dealer data |
|---|---|---|
| 5 or more | 31 | 31 |
| 8 or more | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| 10 or more | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 12 or more | 0.24 | 0.25 |
A 10-hand dragon shows up about once every 1,000 hands, roughly one shoe in fourteen. It feels rarer because you only notice the ones you were at the table for.
Does a run continue?
In live-dealer data the next hand after a run of 3 continues 50.1% of the time; after a run of 7, 52.0%; after 9, 48.0%; after 10, 48.9%. All within noise of the base rate. "Ride the dragon" and "the dragon has to end" are the same bet with opposite signs, and both pay the house edge.
Rack Chasers is built on a live dataset of about 838,000 logged baccarat hands, growing by roughly 130,000 a day, with every rule re-judged nightly against the new shoes. Nothing on this site is a forecast.
Where streak structure is real
The one place we have measured runs continuing more than chance allows is casino-floor shoes, and there the effect is not in the long dragons. Our proprietary meter was built around what the floor data showed. Floor versus studio.
Questions
What is a dragon in baccarat?
A run of the same side long enough to hit the bottom of the big road and turn sideways, usually seven or more.
Should you bet on a streak continuing?
On live-dealer tables the continuation rate is 48% to 52% at every run length, so neither riding nor fading a streak has an edge.
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GET ACCESSFigures are measurements of logged hands and standard baccarat mathematics as of 2026-09-23. Not a forecast; no outcome is guaranteed. Decision support only; every bet is your own decision. 21+ or your local gambling age.